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☆ Dollar droops to one-month low vs euro before key CPI test
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In this photo illustration, the new £10 note is seen alongside euro notes and U.S. dollar bills on Oct. 13, 2017 in Bath, England. The euro edged up 0.03% to $1.0823 in Asian trading hours, and earlier rose to $1.0828 for the first time since April 10. The dollar edged back 0.12% to 156.245 yen on Wednesday, but had pushed as high as 156.80 overnight. The dollar dropped 0.24% to 7.2232 yuan in offshore trading, after reaching the highest since May 1 at 7.2460 overnight. The New Zealand dollar climbed 0.37% to $0.6062, and earlier touched $0.6064 for the first time since April 10.

Persons: Alan Ruskin, Jerome Powell, Tony Sycamore, Joe Biden's Organizations: Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Japan, CPI, IG, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Bath, England, U.S, China

☆ Dollar eyes monthly gain as markets look to Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. Later, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold U.S. interest rates steady but flag cuts are coming by dropping language indicating it is weighing further hikes. Interest rate futures price a roughly 43% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down from 73% at the start of the year. "A 100% probability of a rate cut would point to euro/dollar at $1.1080, while a rate cut that is fully ruled out for March would point the way to euro/dollar at $1.0660," he said. Expectations of interest rate cuts in China have driven a strong rally in the bond market this month while the yuan has been squeezed by flight from China's crumbling equity markets.

Persons: Sterling, Alan Ruskin Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China

☆ Asia stocks snap winning streak, await RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Asian stocks snapped a three-day winning streak on Tuesday, slipping as the bond market's rally paused and investors reined in enthusiasm about a possible peak in global interest rates. Focus is on whether Australia's central bank turns odd man out and raises rates, with a policy decision due at 0330 GMT. Overnight the dollar had rallied with a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, leaving the Australian dollar under gentle pressure at $0.6495 in morning trade in Asia. Aussie government bond futures fell slightly and the ASX200 (.AXJO), which had gained five sessions in a row, slipped 0.4%. Ten year yields rose 10 bps on Monday, but had fallen almost 30 bps last week.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Ben Bennett, Alan Ruskin, George Saravelos, Commonwealth Bank analyst Carol Kong, Gold, bitcoin, Ankur Banerjee Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, Treasury, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Legal, General Investment Management, U.S, Deutsche Bank, Commonwealth Bank analyst, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Taiwan, East, Russia, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore

☆ Asia stocks snap winning streak, Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 1.2% following a three-day rally that lifted the benchmark by nearly 6%. South Korean shares (.KS11) fell 3% as traders unwound some of Monday's surge on the reimposition of a short-selling ban. Treasuries were broadly steady in Asia, having unwound a little of last week's rally on Monday. Ten-year yields hovered at 4.92% - about 10 basis points above where they closed on Friday, but below where they were a week earlier. "It was a dovish hike...it's not pointing to any immediate need for a follow-up," said RBC Capital Markets rates strategist Rob Thompson on the phone from Sydney.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Nicholas Chia, it's, Rob Thompson, Alan Ruskin, George Saravelos, Gold, bitcoin, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, South, Japan's Nikkei, Shanghai, Nasdaq, Standard Chartered, Fed, Capital Markets, U.S, Deutsche Bank, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Sydney, Taiwan, East, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore

☆ Yen languishes as focus turns to Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Against the dollar, the yen fell about 1.7% overnight, touching a low of 151.74 — a whisker from the 151.94 level that prompted intervention a year ago. In the U.S. data showed wages and salaries rose solidly last quarter and while consumer confidence ebbed, it fell far less than markets had expected. The euro declined 0.4% on the dollar overnight and nursed losses at $1.0579. China's Caixin PMI data will be in focus later on Wednesday, ahead of U.S. manufacturing and private payrolls figures — before the Fed meeting. U.S. yields rose in early Asia trade, while Japanese yields fell slightly on thin volumes, leaving the spread between benchmark 10-year rates at 398 bps.

Persons: Alan Ruskin, Sterling, James Malcolm, 10bp Organizations: Resona Bank, U.S, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury, New Zealand, The Bank of, Deutsche Bank, UBS Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, The, The Bank of Japan, U.S, London

☆ Asian shares rally as markets wager on Fed pivot; US inflation in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 0.7% to the highest level in three weeks. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) rallied 1.3% for a third straight day, climbing away from its five-month low hit last week. U.S. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday said higher market interest rates may help the Fed slow inflation, and let it "watch and see" if its own policy rate needs to rise again or not. With the long-awaited pivot for the Fed in sight, traders are bracing for the all-important U.S. consumer inflation report later in the day. Stakes are higher because a producer price inflation report came in hotter than expected on Wednesday.

Persons: HSI, Christopher Waller, Waller, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Alan Ruskin, payrolls, Brent, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, Tokyo's Nikkei, Central Huijin Investment, Federal, U.S, Fed, Dallas Fed, Markets, FedTool, Deutsche Bank AG, Saudi, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Palestine

☆ Asian shares rally, dollar slides on bets Fed almost done hiking
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.5%, bolstered by a 2.1% jump in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) and a 1.4% gain in Australia's resources-heavy shares (.AXJO). Overnight, the much-watched U.S. consumer inflation report provided better news than markets had hoped for. In particular, core inflation, which the Fed has feared to be sticky, also showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown. Elsewhere, oil prices settled near the highest in two months on a soft U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $80.29 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.2 at $75.88.

Persons: Li Qiang, Michael Feroli, Bonds, Alan Ruskin, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Index, Fed, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, FedWatch, U.S, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Canada, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada

ORLANDO, Florida, June 30 (Reuters) - Britain has an inflation problem, but imagine how much worse it would be were it not for the strong pound? But of all the factors pushing up UK inflation, including some that are unique to Britain's economy, labor market and cost of doing business as a consequence of Brexit, a weak exchange rate is not one of them. Indeed, sterling's value on a real effective exchange rate (REER) basis is the highest it has been since the Brexit vote. "UK inflation would indeed be even higher if sterling had not appreciated," Novy said. All else being equal, and taking into account the notorious 'long and variable' lag between interest rate hikes and cooling price pressures, UK inflation could come down pretty quickly next year.

Persons: Liz Truss's, Dennis Novy, Novy, BoE, turvy, Alan Ruskin, Ruskin, Goldman Sachs, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, University of Warwick, Brexit, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Britain, Ukraine

☆ Asia shares inch higher, U.S. inflation test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. "Though our analysis suggests that the impact of a credit tightening against an otherwise healthy backdrop tends to be limited." S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, after jumping on Friday in the wake of Apple's (AAPL.O) upbeat results. The dollar stood at 135.19 yen , with the euro at 148.93 and not far from its recent 15-year peak of 151.55. Brent was last up 3 cents at $75.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 5 cents to $71.39 per barrel.

☆ History of financial shocks shows this banking tumult could be a buying opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If history is any guide, financial events like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank could present an attractive buying opportunity for investors in the months ahead. Data compiled by Deutsche Bank macro strategist Alan Ruskin tracking several major financial events in recent history shows that the S & P 500 has gained a median of 19% a year after those incidents. While the fallout from SVB's failure could present more problems than many recent financial events, the aftershocks should fall short of the havoc wreaked in the wake of 2008's financial crisis, he wrote in a Tuesday note. Despite the wreckage the failures brought to financial markets — and regional banking stocks — history shows that these incidents could present a good buying opportunity for investors, with interest rates typically declining in their wake. Aside from the 1987 stock market crash and 1994 Orange County bankruptcy, history also shows that these incidents can also result in good news for rates.

☆ Morning Bid: The perils of not keeping up with Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That's been Asia's market reaction to the Fed chief's warning on faster hikes and higher rates. Fed fund futures took Powell at his hawkish word and now imply a 70% chance the Fed will hike by 50bp this month, up from just 9% a month ago. JPMorgan noted Powell's focus on the "totality" of data places a lot of weight on Friday's payrolls figures and next week's CPI. Essentially, the cost of not keeping up with the Fed can be a much weaker currency and a greater risk of imported inflation. ADP employment and trade figures- Bank of Canada announcement at 1500 GMTEditing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Powell's warning on higher U.S. rates pushes dollar to 3-mth high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Higher rates benefit the dollar by improving its yield and as traders look for safety while global stockmarkets drop. The dollar hit a two-month high of $1.0528 to the euro , extending Tuesday's 1.2% jump. The Australian dollar has weakened for a similar reason as the Reserve Bank of Australia has softened its tone. Futures imply U.S. rates peaking above 5.6% and holding higher than 5.5% through 2023. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% in Asia trade to a more than three-month high of 105.86.

☆ Powell pushes dollar to three-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 8 (Reuters) - The dollar was riding high on Wednesday, flung to three-month peaks when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell surprised investors by warning that interest rates might need to go up faster and higher than expected to rein in inflation. Overnight it had shot more than 1.2% higher on the euro, its biggest one-day move in five months. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, jumped 1.3% overnight to a three-month peak of 105.65. The blockbuster week of central bank meetings and speakers rolls on later in the day, with the Bank of Canada setting policy and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaking. "If they don't hike, the Canadian dollar will likely fall into a bucket of currencies where the central bank is unwilling to keep up with the Fed."

☆ Asian stocks rally sputters as China pulls back, higher U.S. yields weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. futures erased earlier gains, with the S&P 500 stock futures falling 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.7%. Tesla shares (TSLA.O) slumped 5.5% in after-hour trading, after the Tesla Investor Day failed to excite investors. On Thursday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a fresh four-month high of 4.0160%, after hitting 4% overnight. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index, measuring the greenback's value against a basket of major peers, gained 0.2% to 104.6. Oil prices were largely steady on Thursday, having risen by 1% the previous day due to optimism over China's recovery.

☆ More volatility, possible correction ahead for global stock markets: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies poll datahttp://tmsnrt.rs/2nHJiJ9https://tmsnrt.rs/3EwxtMLhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3EwgwloBENGALURU, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Volatility in global stock markets is not yet over, as more investors reckon interest rates will likely stay higher for longer, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts, a slight majority of whom expected a correction within three months. "Valuations are stretched across equity markets after the rally year-to-date. The Feb. 10-22 Reuters poll of more than 150 strategists, analysts and fund managers covering 17 global stock indices, found 56% were expecting a correction in their local market in the next three months. Latam stock markets will have a relatively better year with Mexican stocks expected to advance 6.7% to 57,500 points and Brazil's Bovespa stock index predicted to gain 14.5% to 125,000 points by year-end. (Other stories from the Reuters Q1 global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Hari Kishan and Sarupya Ganguly; Additional reporting and polling by correspondents in Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo and Toronto; Editing by Ross Finley and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ POLL Global stocks to correct in short term as inflation weighs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary poll datahttp://tmsnrt.rs/2nHJiJ9BENGALURU, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months as investors digest the fact that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts. The poll showed a majority would fall short, or just about recoup their 2022 losses by the end of the year. Stocks have rallied about 20% in recent months and some strategists say that the market has gone too far. "Valuations are stretched across equity markets after the rally year-to-date. A stronger 70% majority of analysts, 57 of 82, expected value stocks to outperform growth stocks this year.

☆ Asian stocks pull back, dollar regains footing ahead of U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Tech shares took a beating in Thursday's after-hours trading, with shares of Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet all tumbling. That took the shine off a strong regular trading session on Thursday, when the S&P (.SPX) climbed 1.5% and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) surged 3.3%. In the currency markets, the euro extended losses to $1.0891, pulling further away from the ten-month top of $1.1033 touched on Thursday. The sterling fell to $1.2206 on Friday, the lowest in more than two weeks, after tumbling 1.2% the previous session. That helped the U.S. dollar to recoup most of its post-Fed losses, with the dollar index now standing at 101.81, away from its nine-month low of 100.80.

☆ Asian shares cautious, BOJ faces crunch policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Earnings season gathers steam this week with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the first big tech name, Netflix, among those reporting. However, it did try to get ahead of speculative sellers by announcing it would do another emergency round today, suggesting it was determined to defend its yield policy at least for now. THE YEN UN-ANCHOREDThe BOJ's uber-easy policy has acted as a sort of anchor for yields globally, while dragging down on the yen. Were it to abandon the policy, it would put upward pressure on yields across developed markets and likely see the yen surge. "A soft-landing also reduces the tail risk of much higher U.S. rates, and this reduced risk premia helps global risk appetite."

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) lost 0.2% in early trade. Nonetheless, the index is set to rise 4.2% for the week, hovering around the highest level since September. "I think the rally can probably continue but in the short-term the payrolls are the one to watch closely." The Euro hit a fresh five-month high at $1.0539 while the Japanese yen also scaled a new three-month high against the U.S. dollar. The Aussie dollar dipped slightly to $0.6796, after blowing past major resistance at 68 cents in the previous session, on Fed pivot hopes and China easing its zero-COVID policy.

Its ultra-loose stance has accelerated Japanese investment flows abroad, helping to turn the yen's slump into one of historic proportions. Its net international investment position, the difference between the stock of assets it holds overseas and stock of Japanese assets held by foreigners, was $3.29 trillion at the end of June. International Monetary Fund figures show that of Japan's $9.96 trillion assets overseas, around $3.7 trillion is in equity-related investments, and some $5.7 trillion in debt instruments, including official reserves. Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin says a YCC change could have spillover effects that could last for a few weeks. Meanwhile, Japanese retail foreign currency deposits at domestic banks rose to 26.58 trillion yen ($182 billion) at the end of August, up 8.3% since the start of the year.

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